Living in Texas and occasionally commenting about it, I get some Texas related responses now and then. Recently Speedy asked what I thought was in store for Texas over the next several years. I don't have a single scenario but rather look at a range of scenarios for Texas (or any other location for that matter).
My optimistic scenario says that the US will get its financial house in order, slowly but painfully, learn to live within its means, and stop acting like a global empire. Those changes would produce dramatic changes here at home, not the least of which would be a more local focus and stronger control of the US/Mexican border. Stronger control could work out well if Mexico gets its own house in order as well by allowing both nations to create a fully operational guest worker program that avoids the illegals problem while providing access to jobs in the US (and Mexico).
But my pessimistic scenario is far closer to what is currently unfolding around us. Mexico is sliding into collapse as the government loses more and more control of anything other than Mexico City, as oil revenues plunge, and as dollars from the US dry up. Meanwhile the US seems hellbent on finding the worst of all possible solutions to its own fiscal crisis. Downstream this will result in one of two options occurring. Either the US will become a fully fascist state (instead of a simply proto-fascist state) or the US will collapse entirely. A fully fascist US would be a bad thing for Mexico regardless. Either Mexico would get absorbed into a greater political entity to be controlled from Washington, or the border would be sealed and illegal immigrants rounded up and dealt with, one way or another. Neither of those are desirable outcomes but they are what might happen if things implode badly.
On the other hand, a collapse by the US might be the best thing to happen to Mexico. There is a high probability that Texas would form the nucleus of a new nation and that nation would have extensive ties to Mexico, in all probability. That nation could consist of any part of Texas, the states immediately surrounding Texas, plus possibly Alabama and Georgia.
In any event, the ongoing events thus far simply indicate that we're all going for a ride that no one in the US has ever been on before. Either we're going to find fiscal sanity, social insanity, or we're all going to part ways. None of those scenarios is "business as usual" for Mexico by dumping its social issues over the border, so Mexico ought to begin facing those problems right now. Of course, they won't do that, which will make the ensuing nightmare all the worse.
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