Friday, July 13, 2007

They took the blue pill

So I open up The Oil Drum and what do I see? It's a thread to discuss The NPC Report. And immediately I see many people very upset that a hand picked council headed by Lee Raymond (former CEO of Exxon) comes to the conclusion that no peak in oil is imminent and that all is pretty much ok, with a few tiny caveats. There is yelling, screaming, and a great deal of incredulous shock that anyone could say this in the face of the evidence of the last several years. There is great cries calling for more activism, more publicity, more, more, more... well more something, anything to change the minds of those that refuse to accept what is happening.

I dissented, which got a rather poor reception. I told them that the general public has taken the blue pill and they don't want to be bothered with reality. In my opinion, the optimal course now is assisting some group (maybe an entire town) as it transitions to the post-peak age. Concentrate on the local with an eye towards utter and total disaster and hope that things don't get that bad. But certainly do have a plan in case they do get that bad. Odds are very high against you and yours getting through the coming bottleneck but that's what you should worry about, not the other 6.5 billion people on the planet. They've chosen the path they are on and they don't want off. They don't want to even hear of getting off. So focus on saving yourself and those close to you. Do whatever you can to maximize your chances no matter how small. Any edge you give yourself is an edge that those who die will not have. And trust me, as the ecosystem goes to crap, and as the resource game advances, there will be plenty of opportunity for the unprepared to rejoin the ecosystem as fertilizer.

Someone suggested I get more specific. There's no point in having that discussion at TOD, none at all. The TOD staff don't even like to admit that anything other than a happy ending can occur to all this. They just want credit for being the ones to warn humanity and "save" it from itself.

Well I have a question for those peak oil activists - when is it time to do something different? What is your cutoff when you say no more, I can't help, I have to focus on myself because the rest of you chose to be dead? I'll bet that most of the TOD activists, who believe peak oil is bad but that everything can somehow still be saved, have never even considered those questions. They just have faith that if they proselytize long enough that everything will turn out fine.

I wish them all the luck in the world and then some, because, believe me, they will need it.

And no, I am not planning to rescue your ass when things go south. I'll be too busy trying to rescue mine and those dear to me.

No comments: